North Carolina: Above average snow forecasted for this winter in the Carolinas

Climate patterns are more favorable for higher precipitation in North Carolina through this winter season

Climate patterns are more favorable for higher precipitation in North Carolina through this winter season

BACK WITH US AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 60S. AS WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT WINTER AND THE SNOWFLAKES YESTERDAY, JUST REMINDING US HOW CLOSE WE ARE TO THAT. COMING UP AS WE GET YOU INTO THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, WE’RE GOING TO BE TALKING A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT EL NINO. THIS IS A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY THAT WE TALK ABOUT IN THE PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL WATERS. THIS IS OFF THE COAST OF ECUADOR. AND YOU SEE THAT WHEN WE’RE WARMER THAN AVERAGE, IT CHANGES THE PRESSURE PATTERNS ACROSS THE GLOBE. AND REALLY THAT MEANS FOR US, WE COULD SEE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE NORMAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH MAY. AND IF THAT EL NINO CONTINUES TO REMAIN AT THAT STRENGTH, WE’RE GOING TO HAVE A MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. AND SO WHAT THAT COULD MEAN, WILL MORE STORMS POTENTIAL LEE MORE SNOW, BUT NOT NECESSARILY COULD MEAN MORE WINTER STORMS, COULD BE MORE RAIN. AND OF COURSE, OUR TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST TO BEGIN WITH, LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT THIS POINT. SO OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. SO THIS IS A STRENGTHENING EL NINO, THAT JET STREAM THAT TRANSPORTS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN COULD KEEP IT GOING RIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AND IF THAT HAPPENS, YEAH, SOME OF THE WORST WEATHER THAT WE WOULD REALLY NOT LIKE TO SEE WOULD BE THE ICE STORMS, THE WINTRY MIX. THAT’S MORE DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH THAN IT IS, I THINK THE SNOW. SO NO GUARANTEE THAT WE’RE GOING TO SEE A SNOWIER WINTER. BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES COMING UP. AN

North Carolina: Above average snow forecasted for this winter in the Carolinas

Climate patterns are more favorable for higher precipitation in North Carolina through this winter season

Editor's Note: Video above features winter forecast for this year The Carolinas could see an active winter season with above-average precipitation including snowfall. Our first round of snow just before the winter season officially begins happened the second weekend in October for the mountains of North Carolina. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are expecting the entire Southeast region to have more precipitation for the 2023-2024 winter season.The biggest difference for this year may be the influence of a strong ENSO event, the El Niño Southern Oscillation pattern that corresponds to above-normal sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific along with the negative trending Southern Oscillation pressure pattern. This often means greater transport of moisture across the Southern United States. Currently, NOAA climatologists and forecasters believe there is up to an 85% chance for a strong El Niño event kicking off our first few months of winter.Then, we may begin to see temperatures run below normal midway into the season providing other pressure patterns shift in our favor to drop some arctic air our way. If that happens, then snow might become more likely.►Will North Carolina get a white Christmas? Check out how much it has snowed in the past in North Carolina on Christmas Day or on Christmas Eve. Our sister station WYFF's Chief Meteorologist, Chris Justus said when it comes to the mountains, the cards are on the table for a very active winter for South Carolina and North Carolina. Chris said the data also shows the El Niño will be similar to the 2009-2010 winter, where we had 6.1 inches of snow.The biggest wildcard this winter will be the warm water temperatures in the Atlantic. Chris said the unusually warm summer has the water temperatures running a bit warmer than normal. This warmer water could fuel snowstorms along the East Coast to make them even more impactful.Chris said right now the pattern for December looks to be for rain to be common, and he said look for the highest snow chances in January and February.Many of us like the idea of at least a little bit of snowfall for the holidays too. Do you remember the last time it snowed around the Christmas holiday in the Piedmont Triad? As the first snowflakes began to fall in Winston-Salem on December 25, 2010, I was so excited for my newborn son, Cody to experience his first touch of winter. The gift of snow on the holiday felt magical!There are only a handful of dates since 1950 when there was more than a trace of snow. The most recent major Christmas snowstorm in the Triad happened in 2010. It's the best Christmas snowfall within the last two decades as most of North Carolina was coated with six to eight inches of snowfall in the Northern Mountains; even the beaches received snowfall from a trace up to 12 inches of snow in the Northern Outer Banks. Here's a link to the Winter Storm Analysis for December 25-26, 2010.If you are curious about other winter storm events, I recommend this link to the North Carolina State Climate Office Winter Storm Database. For more details about how ENSO may impact this season, this link is a great place to start.Do you own a business or church and need a snow code for potential closings and delays? Make sure you're ready for the season by getting a snow code here from WXII12 News so you can post your closing when the weather keeps us off the roads.Curious about snowfall totals for Christmas in the Piedmont Triad? Start your search with this great link for Climatology for One Day for cities in the Piedmont and for cities in the Foothills and Mountains try this link from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg, Virginia.

Editor's Note: Video above features winter forecast for this year

The Carolinas could see an active winter season with above-average precipitation including snowfall.

Our first round of snow just before the winter season officially begins happened the second weekend in October for the mountains of North Carolina. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are expecting the entire Southeast region to have more precipitation for the 2023-2024 winter season.

The biggest difference for this year may be the influence of a strong ENSO event, the El Niño Southern Oscillation pattern that corresponds to above-normal sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific along with the negative trending Southern Oscillation pressure pattern. This often means greater transport of moisture across the Southern United States. Currently, NOAA climatologists and forecasters believe there is up to an 85% chance for a strong El Niño event kicking off our first few months of winter.

Then, we may begin to see temperatures run below normal midway into the season providing other pressure patterns shift in our favor to drop some arctic air our way. If that happens, then snow might become more likely.

►Will North Carolina get a white Christmas? Check out how much it has snowed in the past in North Carolina on Christmas Day or on Christmas Eve.

Our sister station WYFF's Chief Meteorologist, Chris Justus said when it comes to the mountains, the cards are on the table for a very active winter for South Carolina and North Carolina.

Chris said the data also shows the El Niño will be similar to the 2009-2010 winter, where we had 6.1 inches of snow.

The biggest wildcard this winter will be the warm water temperatures in the Atlantic. Chris said the unusually warm summer has the water temperatures running a bit warmer than normal. This warmer water could fuel snowstorms along the East Coast to make them even more impactful.

Chris said right now the pattern for December looks to be for rain to be common, and he said look for the highest snow chances in January and February.

Many of us like the idea of at least a little bit of snowfall for the holidays too. Do you remember the last time it snowed around the Christmas holiday in the Piedmont Triad? As the first snowflakes began to fall in Winston-Salem on December 25, 2010, I was so excited for my newborn son, Cody to experience his first touch of winter. The gift of snow on the holiday felt magical!

There are only a handful of dates since 1950 when there was more than a trace of snow. The most recent major Christmas snowstorm in the Triad happened in 2010. It's the best Christmas snowfall within the last two decades as most of North Carolina was coated with six to eight inches of snowfall in the Northern Mountains; even the beaches received snowfall from a trace up to 12 inches of snow in the Northern Outer Banks. Here's a link to the Winter Storm Analysis for December 25-26, 2010.

If you are curious about other winter storm events, I recommend this link to the North Carolina State Climate Office Winter Storm Database. For more details about how ENSO may impact this season, this link is a great place to start.

Do you own a business or church and need a snow code for potential closings and delays? Make sure you're ready for the season by getting a snow code here from WXII12 News so you can post your closing when the weather keeps us off the roads.

Curious about snowfall totals for Christmas in the Piedmont Triad? Start your search with this great link for Climatology for One Day for cities in the Piedmont and for cities in the Foothills and Mountains try this link from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg, Virginia.

North Carolina: Above average snow forecasted for this winter in the Carolinas

Climate patterns are more favorable for higher precipitation in North Carolina through this winter season

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